Weekend at Lake Bunyonyi & many ways to skin a cat

I spent the weekend at Lake Bunyonyi. I will resist the temptation to descibe the beauty of this place as I always fail to demonstrate it's haecceity, making it sound like the "other place" you visited. Objectively, it's the same combination of hills, lakes, foliage and avicular melodies which makes this place beautiful. Yet there is something in the early morning fog, the lone fisherman in his dugout boat and the reflection of the clouds in the calm waters of the lake that I would have been able to elucidate had I had a better mastery over the words.

Therefore I shall skip past the description of the place, leaving it for better men.

A lesson I learnt during my time in Ghana was that there are many way to live a life that can be labelled as fulfilling. I adduce the example of the Californian I met on Friday night. He spends 3 weeks at a time in Uganda (near Kabale) and Ghana (near Tema) teaching people to make bicycle frames out of bamboo. Check it: http://www.bamboosero.com/. He hires local craftsmen to harvest the bamboo and construct bike frames, imports and assembles the complete bike in the US and ships to a growing environmentally conscious market all over the world while making some decent coin. I was also reminded of the Czech ornithologist working at the foot of Mt Wilhelm in PNG. She had been there for 2 years researching the habits of a small bird with red plumage found only in those parts and seemed to have loved every day of it.

If my vernacular sounds abstruse, I attribute this to a book I am currently reading called "36 arguments for the existence of God: A work of fiction" which has an absurd, though eloquent, character by the name of Jonas Elijah Klapper. Jonas has grown on me and, like everything I seem to read of late, is having a significant impact on me (though the only apparent symptom seems to be my pleonastic turn of phrase.)

I apologise for this discretion; it should be worn off by the next post.

Just finished reading the 'Foundation' series

"It is the invariable lesson to humanity that distance in time, and in space as well, lends focus. It is not recorded, incidentally, that the lesson has ever been permanently learned."

No Salman Rushdie, but definitely a visionary. Loved all 3 books (the third one a little more than the others).

Calvin explain the economy

h/t: Chris Blattman

Great article on the goal of "OWS". I had it all wrong:

So we're not going to coalesce and harden into "demands", but instead continue to nurture a culture of a thousand different demands and recruit people and develop a hegemonic agenda (that we don't have yet!). But the promise of that power and hegemony is grander: democratic control over policy making writ large. Occupy Everything, until we get all our demands and we don't have to make any more.

h/t: Slack Wire

Another great article on what the OWS is all about:

The problem in a nutshell is this: Inequality in this country has hit a level that has been seen only once in the nation's history, and unemployment has reached a level that has been seen only once since the Great Depression. And, at the same time, corporate profits are at a record high.

With my favourite... graphs! Slide 20 negates some of my arguments in my previous post. Current model actually INHIBITS individual agency!

I just don't know

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/10/income-inequality-america

I agree that there is an increasing gap between the have and the have-nots which needs to be addressed but how and towards what goal? What is the equation of utility that we want to maximise? It usually helps to consider the extremes.

Would we prefer to live in a world where everyone can afford an average sized house and a mid-tier car but nothing more or a world where some cannot even afford a boda-boda but others can own private jets?

You think the answer is easy?

How about this one - Would you like to be born in a world where, no matter how hard you work, it's near impossible to achieve your desired level of financial affluence but equally impossible to be in nightmarish poverty; or would you like to live in a world where the world is your oyster, where the harder you work the greater the return on it and there is no limit to what you can achieve while running the risk of being unable to afford a loaf of bread. I don’t believe financial wealth should be a measure of success but a man should be given the freedom to his definition of success.

The two scenarios seem to be two sides of the same coin.

What is the statement we want to maximise?

In Paretian welfare economics, if a particular change in the economy leaves at least one individual better off while no individual worse off, then the change is said to have increased social welfare. Looking at the graph above, each of the changes, whatever they were, while helping the "rich", are still assisting the "poor", albeit to a smaller degree. Is this 'occupy' unrest just a response to a bad case of "keeping up with the joneses"?

I’m sure the more astute will argue that, though it is not disputed that the current model increases over all social welfare, there are other models that are closer to Pareto efficiency. I am mixing concepts here I'm sure, but each change in the economy (through policy, what else?) should take us closer to Pareto efficiency.

Pareto efficiency is complicated further by the fact that new utility is being created. It is not just a reallocation of existing utility but the model for distribution of new utility that is also being questioned. What that Pareto efficiency point is in a model where new utility is constantly being created, I don’t know.

Maybe Paretian welfare economics is not the right model at all. Maybe, the marginal happiness for each unit of utility is higher for the poor than the rich and that should be reason enough to shift utility (tax the rich and fund the poor) to the poor. This will maximise total happiness at the expense of the rich. Will we as a society decide that an individual should give up his hard earned utility because someone else gets more value from it?  You all better send your money to Burkina Faso right now. Tax reform is required but there are other reasons for that besides transfer payments have their own side-effects.

If it’s a matter of individuals measuring their happiness, not by their access to goods and services, but by the difference between their capacity and that of the richest, we could modify the model by saying that increase in the utility of one individual reduces the utility of the rest. Not because a resource is taken away from the rest, that has already been taken into account, but because the rest "feels" worse off. This would imply that a person working extremely hard and aiming for greater financial success should be taxed to compensate for making the less successful feel bad. No, the model cannot be based on how one "feels". It needs to be more objective.

Part of the problem is not money earned but money bequeathed. Why should one person be born to a red carpet path to success while another to hunger, poverty and illiteracy? In Australia, inheritance is taxed as capital gains at the income tax rate (max of 45%). In US (now this is ridiculous), it was REPEALED in 2010 and was reinstated by Obama in Dec 2010 at a ridiculously low top tax rate of 35% and an exlusion amount of $5 million. If anyone has figures on revenue earned from this over the years, I would love to see it. Before being repealed, the tax rate had steadily declined over the years while the exclusion amount increased.

Deep down I know that economic equality is the way to go but I would love to be able to defend it mathematically. I want a model where individual agency is not curtailed more than the current model, overall utility is increased and everyone feels bloody fantastic.

There has been a lot of food for thought this last week. Here another article: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2011/10/24/111024taco_talk_kolbert

I won't discuss this here but here's something else to think about: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere_addition_paradox

In Kabale

"Girlfriend, my booty is not his", said the bald, gaunt girl with an offended look on her face.

I haven't had a chance to watch any television in the last few months. Today, I am in Kabale for a workshop starting tomorrow and am enjoying a serve of Ugandan TV with my meal.

I feel like I'm getting an insight into Ugandan middle class. More so from the the table of 5 behind me laughing and exclaiming excitedly along with the show. The show is in English though the idioms are all mixed up and the slang is contrived.

Tomorrow I have a workshop with the Kabale Regional Referral Hospital to discuss the new ART guidelines and how to order ARVs effectively based on the new guidelines. The ordering process is paper based and, given the number of formulations available, prone to errors. Poor ordering mean insufficient drugs or expired drugs.

I just realised she's not bald but has a no. 1 Mr. T do. Sick!

Clinton Foundation Celebrity Brainstorm

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/71a3d4cccc/clinton-foundation-celebrity-brainstorm

Sid vs the Nile

I am lying in bed with a cracker of a headache that Noorin, the sinus expert in the group, tells me is due to me repeatedly inhaling the Nile in an attempt to breathe under water.

We did white water rafting today. Instead of starting at grade 1 or 2 like most sane people do, my first rafting experience was to be a grade 5. There are 6 grades and after reading the wikipedia page, I interpret grade 1 as relaxing in a spa and grade 6 as guaranteed death

After almost flipping on the first rapid but managing to stay on (Shira disappeared in flash of white), I was feeling pretty cocky. We swapped some rafters for the next rapid and I decided to go on the "100% flip" raft. The guide put all the heavy guys on one side and made us approach the rapid sideways. Guaranteed flip. After the initial confusion, I realised that I was under the raft. I tried to get out but the currents kept pushing me in all directions, making me lose my orientation.  As I struggled for air, a current pull me under and I panicked. After a few seconds of struggling (let me tell you, it felt like eons), I remembered to ball up and let the vest do the work. I floated to the top and took in a lung full of, highly underrated may I add, oxygen and was picked up by one of the other rafts.

My confidence was all but shattered.

Worst spill though was rapid #5, a level 5. The raft went straight up and Lindsay and Meg fell backwards on top of me and I lost a lot of air. After being thrown around for a few second, I found myself speeding down the rapid and the guide yelling "GET YOUR FEET UP". It eventually registered and I positioned myself with my feet pointing down the rapid, face looking up at the sky and arms crossed in front. A rescue kayak came and got me.

It was a whole new kind of fear. Not like sky diving, where the variables can be calculated, but a feeling of futility against forces too mighty that really leaves you deflated.

It was good fun though.

Here are some pics:

Approaching the wave

Getting smashed by the wave

Flipped

Top links of the week

I was talking to Shira about this very topic on Sunday and came across this today:
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1110/1110.1556v1.pdf

RIP Steve Jobs:
http://john.jubjubs.net/2011/10/09/steve-jobs/
http://blog.adamnash.com/2011/10/10/steve-jobs-bmw-ebay/

A letter from a psychopath:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/dh5l3q

Travelling close to the speed of light:
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-light-speed.html

UNITAID - Paediatric and Second line ARVs is what I manage:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-lines/global-health-innovators_b_998617.html

Hilarious:

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/10/joe-the-plumber-is-running-for-congress.php

Little piece of India

I am in Jinja this week for a Ministry of Health national lab quantification meeting. At around 9PM, I walked down and around the corner searching for this Indian restaurant that Evan had suggested I check out. I actually dismissed the little hole in the wall and had to backtrack to it after I realised that it was the only Indian joint in the block.

I walked in to a no-frills room with a squeaky fan, fluorescent lights and plastic chairs. There were a bunch of Scandinavian backpackers at the back finishing their meal, a typical south Indian guy of slight built and oiled hair enjoying an after meal soda, and a lady in a salwar with her feet up chanting from a Durga prayer book, who I correctly guessed as the owner. As I scanned the menu, the lady suggested I order the Punjabi Thali. She said that first in Punjabi and then repeated in heavily accented English.

I ate one of the best daals I have had in a while viewing an episode of 'Don't worry chachaji' on Sony. 

I complimented the lady on the food and she in turn asked me where I was from. She pulled out an iphone and showed me the phone number of a close friend of hers in Melbourne. I took the phone from her and stared at the number not knowing what to do next. I gave back the phone and told her that Melbourne was a nice place. She asked me to come back everyday for a meal and gave me card which had the address of the other restaurant she owns, "Wel Come" (sic).

I bought a quarter pound of kaju barfi and walked back to my room.

Skewed to make us feel good

I was send this article yesterday: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1245686/-/view/printVersion/-/12w2cipz/-/index.html

At a party at the muzungu house last weekend I had the pleasure of meeting a Norwegian medical student called Shetel. We were discussing his work and he lamented on the lack of basic supplies like syringes and bandages at the hospital. As an example, he told me about a man being asked to go to the local store to buy a little rubber tube and a pair of disposable rubber gloves that were essential for his treatment procedure. This is a tube worth 10k shillings while the man probably walked from his village to save 5k on matatus.

Bill Easterley in his book talks about the Principle/Agent problem. In aid, unfortunately the 'principle' is the people in the first world country and not the citizens of the developing country. What the people in the developing country want is not important as they don't vote in the 1st world country's elections.

HIV/AIDS is sexy. The population in the 1st world is willing to accept their tax dollars being diverted to to it as they feel good inside fighting this big bad disease. Who wants their money being spent on rubber tubes and disposable gloves, no matter how lifesaving they might be? In the developing world, ARVs cost about $100 a year for first line and around $400 a year for second line. The prevalence of HIV in PNG is around 1% and AusAID is committed to provide over $110 millions over 5 years to combat this disease. As heartless as it sounds, is the question not "How many lives can you save per dollar" or maybe "How many lives can you save over the next 10 years per dollar"?

I do not wish to trivialize HIV. I am well aware of the economic impacts of this disease and how quickly and easily this epidemic can spread. God knows that the 1st world was way too late to respond (party because of the Principle/Agent problem). All I wish to highlight is that there is a real skew towards what looks good in an AusAid brochure instead of what is really required. Such is the nature of foreign aid.